/biz/ - Business & Finance

WHY ARE WE DUMPING AGAIN

trying to understand what does it mean when the 10 year yield go up

this means that you get paid more to hold government bonds with 10 year expiration

so what the fuck does this mean? if the yields go up, it means that the government is not selling their bonds, so no one wants their crap and they have to raise yields, at some point the yield is attractive enough and it gets bought

once enough demand racks up then the yield starts going down again

so if yields go up it means people are buying risk on assets

if yields go down it means people are scared and are buying the bonds (so shit like TLT goes up)

so if yields go up it means the economy is great because people want to buy the NASDAQ and shit instead of bonds because they sense no risk incoming?

so we are not going to have a recesion? the economy is great? no unemployment and no inflation means that the people wants to buy risk on asset which is why the 10 year yield is going back up and almost 5%, so what does this mean now then? what the fuck is this useful for in terms of trying to predict what happens next?

holy shit why is this so complex, fucking dogshit

are high dividend yield products like JEPI a scam? doesn't your principal dilute long term? what's the point?

even SCHD which supposedly grow your principal, what's the point of getting a dividend paid to reinvest it after paying taxes when you can buy SP500 and just compound automatically?

if you are rich enough that you can live like a neet, just withdraw manually each month and don't go beyond 3.5% yearly or so

dividends are retarded. seems like a psychological thing of not seeing your shares go down as you withdraw + the "im getting paid" effect vs manually withdrawing.

What's the point of recieving dividends?
The higher the yield, the faster your main investment dilutes. Look at JEPI. High yield, but you are lossing long term, probably doesn't even beat inflation. All payments need to be taxed in order to reinvest. If you are in an accumulation fund, it reinvests automatically and you dont pay taxes, only when you sell. So why not just liquidate 3%yearly/12=0,25% monthly so you get a monthly payment and still grow your investment long term? (not sure how much, but I assume 3% liquidation yearly on the sp500 will still allow some growth). Same shit applies to SCHD, sure less dilution than JEPI, but why the fuck do you need to get the dividend payd if you can just manage it yourself manually and get paid what you will spend instead of get paid too much, and have to reinvest this again in order to not lose it to inflation inmediately thus paying taxes? Inb4 I beat the sp500 long term with muh stock picking, no you don't.

>>58416372
because most of the gains are from tech stocks i guess, so even if war related stocks go up, the overall sp500 will go down
the question is, will btc dump too

>sp500 is crashing while BTC is pumping
what the fuck is going on? is this a short lived pump and dump halving thing?
the full Israel-Iran war is not priced in at all and who the fuck knows when these nutjobs can scalate

>iran attacks israel to save face with lame attack
>now israel has to attack again to save face and not look like cucks that did nothing in return
>iran has already said that if they attack they will attack again with more power
>this means that israel will need to scalate as well to not look like cucks
>iran will have to scalate even higher to not look like cucks
>you have now realized the war is unavoidable
how fucked are we and what are some price bottom targets?

BTC: 30k
SP500: 4K
QQQ: 14K

Those would be bottoms I would YOLO at with all firepower then proceed to live on rice and keep 15k cash to live as a NEET while they recover.

This was my original plan during covid but I got scared away thinking we could crash for years. Pic related, still haunts me that this is possible. Imagine this board on year 9. Fucking hell. But the odds are that it will recover. The war will get priced in fully, just like Ukraine-Russia war, and then, unless we get nukes or other countries joining, we should go up.

If we go into a 10+ year recesion gigacrash I may as well kms. But im already considering it now so yeah. I lost my income and I have 400k saved, 100k in MSTR (leveraged BTC) 300k in cash. If I could get a good entry, I would go all in on MSTR and get massive upside on the 100k+ BTC bullrun. BTC itself is not enough to get life changing gains anymore and altcoins are retarded. Normie stocks deliver shitty alpha. At 30k BTC MSTR may crash to what, $500? who knows. I would buy there.

But as of right now it seems retarded to start buying because the war is not priced in.

math phd predicts 1 million a coin in 10 years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-pwNtO-p5o

>>58115770
>rare based bizraeli
don't show your power level yet, i need to get to 100 shares

>has to wage
>comfortably live
>dump your capital into real cuckstate

>they cut rates
>inflation goes up
>they don't cut rates
>economy collapses
If you still don't understand why BTC is going to 1+ million you will not make it

>>58087844

>cut rates
>inflation up
>do not cut rates
>economy collapses
btc is going to 1 million unironically

fucking autistic slurping pieces of shit you are going to get dumped on again

Does anyone here own bitcoin miners? an anon got rich from last cycle, but this cycle they have a lot more shares. MARA was $80 and now $22 due shares dilution for example.

Im considering buying 10k shares worth of CLSK for like $17k and let it ride but I feel like it's late to get rich from any of this shit unless you spend like 200k.

The undervalued miners like CIFR are too risky imo. Find yourself holding the wrong miner after halving and you are fucked. Also everyone that bought miners for lack of ETF will not be into miners now I guess.

Anyone that isn't a retarded memecoiner and has due research on this field can comment on whats your gameplan?

>just saw btc on the news about how it pollutes and its used for terrorism after like years
its fucking topping isnt it

>store of value
>crashes 8% in minutes due Coinbase having a server error
This shit is going so crash it's unbeliable. Only degens are buying, you are deluded if you think serious money is behind this.

>the entire economy depends on a GPU stock fueled by hype of making videos off writing words to flood the internet with weird glorified shitty shutterstock tier footage and call it progress

>buy something
>it goes up a lot too fast
>wow shit I lucked out, I will take some profits
>takes profits
>you now owe 20% or whatever the fuck to the taxman
>you have to save 20% of the amount you sold rotting in your bank account to inflation
>decide this is stupid so you use this to get back into the market
>the stuff you buy pumps
>"I won"
>it goes lower again
>it goes even lower than your previous entry point meaning that you now owe taxes of your previous sale and in order to pay it you have to sell because you don't have an income or your income is not high enough to pay for that amount
>sell
>oh wait I owe a 20% on this again
>oh no wait I just owe again
>sell again owe again
>loop and loop of owing taxes
>your account is divided by 0
>you are financially decimated

Does anyone here buy MSTR instead of BTC or ETF for extra leverage? BTC sucks and will only do a 2x, I could 4x with the same price movement with this.

Miners are another alternative but they are more risky.

I would have doubled my money already if I followed my original YOLO strategy of going all in on MSTR but I pussied out and nwo I want to kms

just buy more btc and nvda bro all good

>>57615281
bob loukas says its going to crash to under 40k after a super cycle