/sci/ - Science & Math

Source of the image?

Imo engineered pandemic risk & unaligned AI risk should get swapped. I don't get why there is still no proper biosafety policy.

>>15270191
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/

>>15270191
They're basically the same when considering the other orders of magnitude. I think the main point is about expected value.
Something along the lines of, engineered pandemics are might be likely to happen, but less likely to kill everyone than unaligned AGI. We'll probably have rich assholes hiding in bunkers for 200 years if an engineered pandemic kills everyone else, and they'll eventually come out to repopulate Earth.

But you can't hide from AGI. You can't flee to mars either.

>>15270213
>But you can't hide from AGI. You can't flee to mars either.
You can't hide from bugbears either.

>>15269951
>>15270191
I don't even get how they get those numbers with any degree of accuracy. There were at least instances in the past where a nuclear war may have broken out and you can probably get useful data from "close calls". Likewise climate change is relatively well understood. How the fuck do you come up with a probability of an unaligned AI wiping us out? Or "unforeseen anthropogenic risks"?

>>15270213
>But you can't hide from AGI. You can't flee to mars either.
That's just skynet tier AGI behavior.

>>15270252
The book actually goes into detail on the numbers. They're probably within an order of magnitude correct, but he goes into detail on confidence intervals iirc

>>15269951
table is garbage. those aren't statistically independent events.

>>15270191
Unfortunately if anyone tried to implement proper biosafety policy you'd get an endless stream of seething /pol/tards saying its evil NWO klaus schwab adrenochrome nanochips or some shit

>>15269951
>And later, the US detonated a bomb whose fuel was contaminated with lithium-7, the explosion was much bigger than expected, and some bystanders were killed.
which test was this? series and shot, I want specifics.
Because if you're talking about Ivy Mike you're a dumbass.

>>15269951
>another anti-science thread on sci

It's always the most retarded most scientifically illiterate morons who are the most confident in making these sort of retarded critiques. You obviously don't understand science and don't have any expertise in the subject, so what makes you think you know better than actual scientists. Maybe you should focus on your own ignorance and stupidity instead of criticizing scientists and experts who have a lot more training and knowledge than some fear-mongering internet conspiracy theorist like yourself.

You're a retard and a loser and nobody wants you on this board.

>>15271440
>posts low IQ hyperbole comic for the shitwit masses straight out of some tabloid
>believes in the AGW scam
Pottery.

>>15271446
t. low IQ republican who thinks he understand climate better than actuall climate scientists

>>15271465
>nonsentient golem spergs off about muh republicans
Pottery.

>>15271314
This point is made in the book. They can influence each other.

>>15271408
IT IS MY FREEDUMB AS AN AMERICAN CITIZEN TO MIX WHATEVER CHEMICALS SOMEONE ON THE INTERNET PAYS ME TO

>>15271408
You are severely mentally ill if you think the """biosafety""" agenda is promoted by anyone other than the "NWO" characters.

>>15271650
Oh wow, problem that affects the entire globe would be addressed by a global community.
Save the children

>>15271728
Called it. It's always someone clearly mentally ill like you.

>>15271741
I mean, what's the alternative?
The global community couldn't even coordinate properly on covid and we've had pandemics from before recorded history. We're super fucked anyway so it doesn't really matter I guess.

>>15271758
There is no "global community".
>what's the alternative?
To round these shills and their families and subject them to legendary public torture and execution. That would be a good start.

>>15271758
>The global community couldn't even coordinate properly on covid and we've had pandemics from before recorded history
and your plan is to give this "global community" MORE power?

>>15271774
Lock me down harder and force more jabs on me, daddy. It only failed because it wasn't enough.

>>15271769
>>15271774
I'm just referring to "global community" as basically anyone in government who coordinates with other people in other governments. Yes there is definitely shady shit going on, but it's not nearly as interesting as you think it is, and it's not where you think it is.
What if I told you Fauci is being seriously stupid by advocating for gain of function research? You would change you mind on a dime and agree with me because your world model isn't nuanced enough to recognize something more complicated than blue tribe bad, green tribe good.

>>15271798
Your likes need to be physically removed from society. The days where this kind of moronic cattledom could be tolerated are over. We've seen what happens when you are allowed to gape your filthy mow and publicly express your owner's opinions.

>>15269951
Didn't you already do this shitpost?

>>15271798
>What if I told you Fauci is being seriously stupid by advocating for gain of function research?
What if I told you he gets his funding from """biosecurity"""? Where are all these cretins being funneled in from?

>>15271802
skill issue

>>15271808
>inbred normoid zoomer sharts out his twitter line as if to confirm

>>15271804
>sigh
Yes that's the point. That's the problem. COORDINATION IS HARD WHEN THE BENEFIT OF DEFECTING IS GREATER TECHNOLOGY

>>15271817
>That's the problem.
Glad we all agree the problem is the """biosecurity""" agenda. Another government program that should be defunded ASAP.

>>15271804
I'll make this easier. """biosecurity""" is a suitcase word. You can throw lots of definitions into it. Everyone agrees in principle that's it's good, but it's difficult to define and everyone is doing their own thing. You'll hear some people who don't actually care about biosecurity use it to gain favor. This is difficult to distinguishable from people who use the word sincerely.

>>15271823
>Everyone agrees in principle that's it's good
No one cares about your fantasy principles. In practice, you fund """biosecurity""" and you get manmade pandemics followed by totalitarian and ineffective measures to "contain" them.

>>15271821
Sure let's defund biosecurity. How would we do it? Anything that has "biosecurity" as a string in a line item expense isn't paid for? What's the alternative to preventing people making anthrax and shipping it around the country? You following yet?

>>15271829
>Sure let's defund biosecurity. How would we do it?
In exactly the same way they defund whatever doesn't suit them.

>>15271829
>What's the alternative to preventing people making anthrax and shipping it around the country?
The only time this happened, the US government was responsible for it and it was a strain created in a US """biosecurity""" lab.

>>15271827
Research into advancing gain of function is a double edged sword.
If it's an easier metaphor, we can use asteroids. Imagine we develop the technology to knock an asteroid off course so it doesn't collide with Earth. This is a good technology to have, but would only be useful every 1 million years or so. Now that we have the technology to knock asteroid off course, everyone now has the technology to knock asteroid on course with earth. If one crazy billionaire anytime in the next 1 million years decides to hit Earth with an asteroid, that technology will have actually been bad.
Bioengineering is like this, but a million times more complicated.

>>15271838
Glad you concede that the only thing we need to be protected from is these """biosecurity""" labs.

>>15271841
still. not. getting. the. point.

>>15271844
There is no point. You and your office buddies in whatever filthy US govenrment hole you're sitting are losing your minds with rage, because it is a known and documented fact that your """biosecurity""" agenda has never protected anyone from anything, but has only been used against the population.

>>15271847
There's a point, but you're still too dense to get it. We're all going to die soon and I don't care anymore.

>>15271856
Your fault for getting the shot. Don't think all of us were as stupid as you.

>>15271856
I can show you at least a dozen cases of the US government biologically attacking its own citizens using shit developed under a """biosecurity""" pretext, or even conducting the attack itself under a """biosecurity""" pretext. You will not be able to show me a single instance of the US government thwarting any biological attack on US citizens through its """biosecurity""" programs.

>We're all going to die soon and I don't care anymore.
And now the subhuman drone exposes itself and the standard anti-human agenda behind that preprogrammed babble.

>>15271864
It's a copy paste shit post jesus christ chill out

>>15271866
"I was just pretending to be from LessWrong."

>>15271867
I'm not that guy, I'm telling you to stop responding to the bot.

>>15271863
Ironically, the vax is safe. Or to be """nuanced""" the expected outcome of receiving the vax is safer than catching covid multiplied by the chance of catching covid.
None of you will see this coming. We're all going to drop dead at the same time and I won't even get the satisfaction of being right.
>>15271864
I have been arguing with morons on 4chan to kill time, but more than that I've been trying to advocate for better policy for over a decade. No one will listen and I'm tired. Some small part of me still cares, but it's too exhausting to keep fighting at the same level I was before.

>>15271877
>the vax is safe
Like clockwork. You know it's gonna be one of these shills as soon as you hear this animal talking about """biosecurity""" programs being somehow essential despite there being no examples of them thwarting any biological attacks and many examples of then causing those.

>>15271877
>None of you will see this coming. We're all going to drop dead at the same time and I won't even get the satisfaction of being right.
Uh ok but again we didn't take it. Only you will be part of the cull.

>>15271878
You're the one who brought up the shot. You say it isn't say. I say it is. You say "like clockwork" like you're some kind of wizard.
>no examples of them thwarting any biological attacks and many examples of then causing those.

Consider observer bias. Do you hear about every failed terrorist plot, or just the ones you're supposed to hear about?

What might go wrong if a terrorist uses technology made with stuff you can buy on the internet to create a weapon capable of hurting millions, but is stopped. But then the news comes in and tells everyone about it?

>>15271884
See >>15271878
Thanks for making it clear the sort of "person" who shills for the biosecurity state is the same sort of person who still defends the clotshot.

>>15271884
How come we hear about your handlers attacking people, but not about them preventing any attacks? You'd think it'd be easier to find out about the latter, especially with how hard they are trying to shill the idea that their budget is justified and needs to be expanded. Anyway, I know I'm talking to an unthinking subhuman the moment I see the word "bias" or "fallacy" in a post.

>>15271890
Yeah I guess acknowledging human constraints and trying to work with them rather than just assuming I know the correct answer to everything makes me subhuman. Ya got me there

>>15271893
So you can't explain why we hear about your handlers perpetrating attacks, despite them doing their best to hide it, but not about them preventing attacks, despite them having every reason to publicize their successes?

>>15271893
someone really needs to string you up from a lamp post the way they used to do to filthy fascism apologists and accomplices

>>15270213
>you can't hide from AGI

>>15272488
-Cut the main cable!
-Negative, it doesn't accept the command
-Fire the laser!
-The enemy's AT field materialized; no effect

>>15272488
That was the toaster grandpa

The AI is running on a cluster distributed across 30 datacenters scattered across the planet.

Besides, it just used the mountain of CEVs we trained it on to develop novel 0 days, and guess what?
It developed some novel 0 days and started spreading.

Why are we so concerned about nuclear war, fallout, nuclear winter, etc. When Hiroshima and Nagasaki prove you can obliterate an area without long term damage to the surroundings?

>>15272796
It really lends credence to the people who suspect it was all a fraud.

>>15272796
Because those bombs will always be the worst nuclear bombs in history. As in nuclear bombs only got more powerful from then on. So the worry is what would happen if something even stronger were to be used as a normal weapon.

>>15272796
>Why are we so concerned about nuclear war
Because of what's called countervalue doctrine. There are two prevailing nuclear war doctrines: counterforce and countervalue. Countervalue is when you nuke cities. The scary part of nuclear war is that a limited counterforce conflict could easily escalate into a large-scale countervalue conflict.
>fallout
Not really a concern in most situations. Fallout only gets generated in significant amounts from groundbursts, where dirt and debris gets irradiated and kicked up into the air. Airbursts, besides being more destructive in most situations, produce very little fallout.
>nuclear winter
Largely discredited today. The same people who predicted nuclear winter also predicted a regional climate crisis from the burning of Kuwaiti oil wells in 1991. No such climate crisis occurred. So the nuclear winter hypothesis got badly discredited and has since pretty much been ignored.